An important reminder as we head into what could be a very ugly week for stocks

Before we get to the “important reminder,” the following chart is from the dynamic web-report, OECD Economic Outlook, June 2020, put out by the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) twice a year. This highly followed report illustrates what Fed Chairman put into words in his recent speech, following the central bank’s two-day policy … Read more An important reminder as we head into what could be a very ugly week for stocks

Aggregate Demand & Back to Normal

One only needs to look at the trend in railroad traffic this year vs the trend in railroad stock prices to see that investors are defining a “return to normal” economic activity as the pre-recession level. However, utilizing a reasonable 2% economic growth pre-recession rate (since 2007, economic growth has barely averaged 2%) and current … Read more Aggregate Demand & Back to Normal

Will an inflation narrative soon have an impact on the direction of stocks?

Inflation Direction

The Cleveland Federal Reserve Bank estimates future inflation using a “nowcasting” model to calculate headline (including food and energy) and core consumer inflation (CPI) in addition to the Central Reserve Bank’s favorite gauge for inflation, headline and core personal consumption expenditures (PCE).