Last week’s bear kick-off was robust

U.S. stocks finished last week with a moderate pick-up.

The number of advancing vs. declining stocks was marginally positive at 1.28:1 and with up volume ahead by just 4.5% (NYSE).

Overall volume contracted Thursday and Friday.

For the week, the DJIA, S&P 500, and NASDAQ all lost ground about 1% to 3%.

The Restart of the Bear

Further analysis of the volume and direction of the move in the S&P 500 since the April 29 top finds higher highs and higher lows in the overall change in the Primary trend of the stock market.

The following charts detail the character of the material change in trend.

S&P 500 Transition from Bear Rally

Direction Down / Volume Up Starting Last Wednesday


Volume & Direction Spread


Bear Kick-off – Healthy & Robust


As we can see the direction of the volume and direction spread aka robustness has been trending upwards since April 29. Additionally, the trend is healthy.

Prices are hitting higher highs and higher lows.

However, despite the robust kick-off, Friday’s behavior appears to be a completion of a minor counter-trend rise.

As long as the S&P 500 stays below 2945.82, the overall trend remains down.

This week appears to be getting an interesting start with futures up almost 3% before the start.

We are still almost two weeks away from the April government readings on GDP (April 28) and inflation (April 29).

As we have learned, the economic and societal collective narrative is the major driver behind stock prices. The narrative on the medium and long-term trend has yet to appear.


Here are the numbers reflected in the above charts: Direction Trend Robustness

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